The Future of Taxes: What the 2025 TCJA Replacement Could Mean for You

The House Budget Committee Republicans have released a 51-page document outlining policy ideas for the 2025 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) replacement.

By Kit Lancaster, CFP®, Sterling Edge Financial

The House Budget Committee Republicans have released a 51-page document outlining policy ideas for the 2025 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) replacement. These proposals range from small adjustments to major overhauls that could significantly impact American households, including those earning less than $500,000 annually.

Importantly, these are just brainstorming ideas, not finalized policies. Committees of this nature often produce extensive lists, many of which will be revised, watered down, or discarded altogether. That said, it’s crucial to understand the potential impact of these proposals, particularly for households that depend on existing deductions and credits to manage their tax burdens.

Let’s break down the proposals, analyze their implications, and offer examples of how they could affect a family in Illinois earning $300,000 annually.


Proposals Under Consideration and Potential Impacts

1. Eliminating the Home Mortgage Interest Deduction

Currently, homeowners can deduct the interest paid on mortgages, reducing taxable income. For a household in Illinois with a $300,000 annual income and a $500,000 mortgage at a 5% interest rate, this deduction saves approximately $6,000 annually in federal taxes. Removing this deduction would raise taxable income, resulting in a higher tax burden and potentially discouraging homeownership.

2. Removing the Exclusion on Municipal Bond Interest

Municipal bonds are a popular investment because their interest income is exempt from federal taxes. For a family investing $100,000 in municipal bonds yielding 3%, the $3,000 annual interest is currently tax-free. Without this exclusion, the family could owe $660 in additional taxes, assuming a 22% federal tax bracket. This change might make municipal bonds less attractive, pushing investors toward higher-risk options.

3. Repealing the SALT Deduction

The State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction allows taxpayers to deduct up to $10,000 in state and local taxes from their federal taxable income. In Illinois, where property taxes and state income taxes are high, a family earning $300,000 likely maxes out this deduction. Repealing it entirely would result in an additional $10,000 in taxable income, potentially adding $2,200 to their federal tax liability.

4. Replacing HSAs with Universal Savings Accounts

Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) provide tax advantages for medical expenses. A family contributing $7,750 to an HSA annually currently saves $1,705 in federal taxes at a 22% tax bracket. Replacing HSAs with a broader Universal Savings Account could dilute these healthcare-specific benefits, leaving families with less tax-advantaged support for rising medical costs.

5. Eliminating the Head of Household Filing Status

This filing status benefits single parents or those supporting dependents. A single parent in Illinois earning $90,000 annually with two children currently saves about $2,500 in taxes compared to filing as a single individual. Removing this status would disproportionately increase the tax burden on single-parent households already managing tight budgets.

6. Repealing Green Energy Tax Credits

Tax credits for clean vehicles and energy-efficient home upgrades encourage environmentally conscious investments. For a family installing $20,000 in solar panels, the current 30% credit saves $6,000. Without these credits, the upfront cost of sustainable choices increases, discouraging eco-friendly investments.


A Closer Look: The Potential Impact on an Illinois Family Earning $300,000

Let’s analyze the cumulative impact of these proposals:

  • Mortgage Interest Deduction: +$6,000 in taxable income, increasing taxes by $1,320.
  • SALT Deduction Repeal: +$10,000 in taxable income, increasing taxes by $2,200.
  • Municipal Bond Taxation: $660 in new taxes on $3,000 interest income.
  • Eliminating HSAs: Loss of $1,705 in tax savings.

Total Additional Federal Tax Burden: $5,885

For a family earning $300,000, this represents a significant increase in their tax liability. Coupled with the removal of other deductions and credits, such as the child and dependent care credit, the financial strain could grow even larger.


Why These Ideas Are Just the Starting Point

As a financial planner, I understand that committees often produce exhaustive lists of ideas during brainstorming sessions. Many of these proposals will likely face significant public and political opposition, leading to revisions or outright rejection. For instance, eliminating the mortgage interest deduction or SALT deduction entirely could spark widespread backlash, particularly in high-tax states like Illinois.

That said, even partial implementation of these ideas could lead to noticeable changes in household tax burdens, underscoring the importance of staying informed and prepared.


What Should You Do Now?

While these are just ideas, and nothing has been finalized, it’s wise to start thinking about how potential changes might affect your financial strategy:

  1. Evaluate Your Tax Exposure: Identify which deductions and credits you currently rely on and how their removal could impact your finances.
  2. Consider Alternative Strategies: If proposals like the SALT deduction repeal or HSA replacement move forward, explore other ways to manage taxes and healthcare costs.
  3. Stay Flexible: Tax policy is fluid, and your financial plan should be, too. Be ready to adapt as legislation evolves.

We’re Here to Help

At Sterling Edge Financial, we’re committed to helping you navigate uncertainty and protect your financial future. While these proposals are just the beginning of a lengthy legislative process, they highlight the importance of proactive planning and adaptability.

We’ll continue monitoring developments and provide updates as these ideas take shape. If you’re concerned about how these potential changes could affect your finances, let’s talk. Visit us at www.sterlingedgefinancial.com or contact us today to schedule a consultation. Together, we’ll build a strategy that ensures your financial plan remains strong—no matter what changes lie ahead.

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